WinStar TDN Derby Top 20 for Apr. 11

by T.D. Thornton

This past weekend's coast-to-coast tripleheader of GI Kentucky Derby preps was like the flurry of fireworks prior to the concussive boom of the show-stopper itself, which is now only a little more than three weeks away. This most recent trio of preps might have ended up providing us with more questions than answers, although at this point in the season, it might be wise just to embrace the chaos. Please note the rankings below are independent from the “Road to the Derby” points leaderboard that Churchill Downs will use to determine starting berths; that list can be accessed here.

1. (Last Week: 3) ALWAYS DREAMING (c, Bodemeister—Above Perfection, by In Excess {Ire})

O-Brooklyn Boyz Stables, Teresa Viola Racing Stables et al. B-Santa Rosa Partners (KY). T-Todd A. Pletcher. Sales History: $350,000 Ylg '15 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GISW, 5-3-1-1, $648,900.

Last Start: 1st, GI Xpressbet Florida Derby, GP, Apr. 1

Next Start: GI Kentucky Derby, CD, May 6

https://www.thoroughbreddailynews.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/GunneveraTG.pdfEquineline PPs

KY Derby Points: 100

Always Dreaming's scintillating score in the Florida Derby was by far the most visually impressive of all the nine-furlong Kentucky Derby prep stakes, and that commanding performance is enough to trump any trepidation about installing such a lightly raced (five starts overall; needed three tries top break maiden) colt atop this week's rankings. Always Dreaming stands out among his peers in that he's already won two 1 1/8-mile races (although that allowance victory Mar. 4 came at 1-10 odds when he walked home after setting a dawdling pace), yet more importantly he has the potential to be peaking at precisely the right time. Horses who have won the Florida Derby have performed prolifically well on the first Saturday in May over the past several decades, with the likes of Nyquist (Uncle Mo), Orb (Malibu Moon), Big Brown (Boundary), Barbaro (Dynaformer), Monarchos (Maria's Mon), and Thunder Gulch (Gulch) all parlaying Florida Derby wins into Kentucky Derby triumphs. This endorsement doesn't mean that Always Dreaming will be the best bet on Derby Day, when he is likely to hover around 5-1 favoritism. But in terms of asserting himself as the division leader at a crucial time of the season, this colt has put himself in a good position to avenge the second-place Derby finishes of both his sire and paternal grandsire.

2. (13) IRISH WAR CRY (c, Curlin">Curlin—Irish Sovereign, by Polish Numbers)

'TDN Rising Star' O/B-Isabelle de Tomaso (NJ). T-H. Graham Motion. Lifetime Record: MGSW, 5-4-0-0, $699,460.

Last Start: 1st, GII Wood Memorial S., AQU, Apr. 8

Accomplishments: 1st, GII Lambholm South Holy Bull S., GP, Feb. 4, 1st, Marylander S., LRL, Jan. 23

Next Start: GI Kentucky Derby, CD, May 6

Thoro-Graph sheet, Equineline PPs, Caulfield on Irish War Cry

KY Derby Points: 110

“That was more like it,” a relieved trainer Motion said after Irish War Cry's emphatic dismantling of the Wood Memorial field on Saturday, echoing the sentiments of racing enthusiasts who had been puzzled by the New Jersey-bred's Fountain of Youth S. debacle after he had shown flashes of brilliance in three undefeated starts. Even though this 'TDN Rising Star' didn't exactly master rating from well off the pace (“He could have maybe waited even longer,” Motion said of jockey Rajiv Maragh's move) Irish War Cry was noticeably more comfortable and not fighting his partner even while keen to advance upon pacemaker Battalion Runner (Unbridled's Song). The eventual winner edged closer at both six and four furlongs out before accelerating on even terms at the three-eighths pole, then 'Irish' responded to a left-handed crack of the crop and vigorous arm-pumping encouragement to power away inside the final furlong. “He settled just off the pace and I guess I was a bit concerned on the backside because he kind of moved up quite early to the leader, and from what Rajiv told me, he felt like he had so much horse underneath him. My big question for him was how he thought about how he won, and he said he felt like he did it pretty comfortably really [and] that he could have put him anywhere in the race that he wanted, and that was the kind of feedback I needed to hear.”

3. (1) MCCRAKEN (c, Ghostzapper">Ghostzapper—Ivory Empress, by Seeking the Gold)

'TDN Rising Star' O/B-Whitham Thoroughbreds, LLC (KY). T-Ian R. Wilkes. Lifetime Record: MGSW, 5-4-0-1, $410,848.

Last Start: 3rd, GII Toyota Blue Grass S., KEE, Apr. 8

Accomplishments Include: 1st, GIII Sam F. Davis S., TAM, Feb. 11, 1st, GII Kentucky Jockey Club S., CD, Nov. 26, 1st, Street Sense S., CD, Oct. 30

Next Start: GI Kentucky Derby, May 6, CD

Thoro-Graph sheet, Equineline PPs, Caulfield on McCraken

KY Derby Points: 40

McCraken didn't regress so much as he failed to progress when third as the 8-5 favorite in Saturday's talent-laden Blue Grass S. that ended up being stolen by long-shot maiden Irap (Tiznow). This 'TDN Rising Star' will still be in solid shape heading to the Derby—he's 3-for-3 at Churchill and won his first four lifetime starts with admirable professionalism—so there's plenty to like. But missing the GII Tampa Bay Derby in March with an ankle strain has caused enough of a ripple in his training regimen that McCraken will now be “backing into” the Derby off a subpar performance. “I thought he was too fresh and too much on the bit and that is where missing [the Tampa Derby] showed up,” Wilkes said. “He was a little too keen.” Yet in the “silver lining” department, both horse and trainer could end up benefiting from not having to endure the media circus that would have accompanied going into the Derby with a colt who had never lost. “It got the monkey off my back of being undefeated, Wilkes added. “That [would have added] a little pressure. Now that that is over, you can concentrate on getting the job done.” Jockey Brian Hernandez, Jr. is the one under pressure now, because he faces a difficult commitment either way: He's ridden both McCraken and Girvin (Tale of Ekati) in each of their lifetime starts, and could soon be in the position of having to choose one over the other for his Derby mount.

4. (4) GIRVIN (c, Tale of Ekati—Catch the Moon, by Malibu Moon)

O-Brad Grady. B-Bob Austin & John Witte (KY). T-Joe Sharp. Sales History: $140,000 RNA Ylg '15 KEESEP; $130,000 Ylg '15 FTKOCT. Lifetime Record: MGSW, 4-3-1-0, $874,400.

Last Start: 1st, GII Louisiana Derby, FG, Apr. 1

Accomplishments Include: 1st, GII Risen Star S., FG, Feb. 25

Next start: GI Kentucky Derby, CD, May 6

Thoro-Graph sheet, Equineline PPs

KY Derby Points: 150

Don't make the mistake of lumping Girvin in with the horses that are likely to sit midpack and make one sustained move three or four furlongs out in the Derby. Although he's learned how to rate effectively, trainer Sharp had pointed out leading up to the Louisiana Derby how tactically nimble Girvin is. “As far as speed goes, I do like that he was obviously on the lead when he needed to be, when he was asked to be in his maiden race. He stopped just off the pace in the turf race, and he came from considerably further back in the Risen Star,” Sharp said. “So he's shown three levels of versatility, which with all the situations that are thrown at you on the first Saturday in May, that's huge for us.” Although I still have my doubts about the quality of horses Girvin has been roughing up in New Orleans (he beat only one stakes winner in the Louisiana Derby) and the manner in which he did it (beneficiary of perfect trips), he is maturing and peaking at precisely the right time of year, and as Sharp added, he “definitely channels his energy in the right direction.”

5. (18) GORMLEY (c, Malibu Moon—Race to Urga, by Bernstein)

O-Mr. & Mrs. Jerome Moss. B-Castleton Lyons & Kilboy Estate (KY). T-John A. Shirreffs. Sales History: $150,000 RNA Ylg '15 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: MGISW, 6-4-0-0, $920,000.

Last Start: 1st, GI Santa Anita Derby, SA, Apr. 8

Accomplishments Include: 1st, GI FrontRunner S., SA, Oct. 6, 1st, GIII Sham S., SA, Jan. 7.

Next Start: GI Kentucky Derby, CD, May 6

Thoro-Graph sheet, Equineline PPs, Caulfield on Gormley

KY Derby Points: 125

Gormley displayed a new dimension while rating from off the pace to win the relatively slow Santa Anita Derby and he'll head to Louisville significantly more battle tested than some of the lighter-raced contenders on this list. He has a fair amount of fight in him and has proven he can overcome adversity, but it's an open question whether he's the type of horse who makes his own trouble, or at least has a knack for putting himself into tough spots. Gormley resisted the settling efforts by jockey Victor Espinoza into the first turn, barely got off the heels of the caving American Anthem (Bodemeister) when winding up for his winning move, then had his head cocked to the infield at the head of the lane before straightening out for a stretch battle that ended up with him in front as the top five horses all finished within two lengths at the wire. “I had a little bit of a hard time taking him back but all I had to do was jerk him one time, a bit harder than I wanted, and that's all it took,” said Espinoza. “He relaxed very nice. Down the backside, I started laughing to myself because I knew I was in a good position and I knew all the horses in front of me were going to stop. He showed me he's capable of going the distance. The only problem is his size; he's not very big but he's tough and that's what I like about him. He works really hard and that's what it takes.”

6. (15) BATTLE OF MIDWAY (c, 3, Smart Strike–Rigoletta, by Concerto)

'TDN Rising Star' O-Fox Hill Farms, Inc. B-Thor-Bred Stables, LLC (KY). T-Jerry Hollendorfer. Sales History: $410,000 Ylg '15 FTSAUG. Lifetime Record: GISP, 4-2-1-1, $290,000.

Last Start: 2nd, GI Santa Anita Derby, SA, Apr. 8

Next Start: Possible for GI Kentucky Derby, CD, May 6

Thoro-Graph sheet, Equineline PPs

KY Derby Points: 40

Battle of Midway was a strong pace presence in the Santa Anita Derby, and even though his effort didn't produce a victory, it certainly asserted him as an intriguing prospect getting good at the right time. This 'TDN Rising Star' broke with alacrity and secured the rail while pegged down on the fence in a robust three-way go, and not only outdueled his two rivals on the lead (after the trio opened up by six lengths on the backstretch), but still had enough kick left to hang in gamely when accosted by Gormley inside the final furlong. Battle of Midway's third-place try as the beaten 4-5 fave in the San Vicente S. two months ago is the only real blemish in his four-race block of past performances, and his last two sharp efforts at 1 1/16 and 1 1/8 miles are both encouraging signs that he's likely to be able to handle a further stretch to the 1 1/4 mile Derby distance. “If he didn't get pressured so much early I think we would have won, but that's how things go,” trainer Hollendorfer said. “I'm very happy with him. He's been progressing all along, and if he can continue, he should be a contender.”

7. (N/A) ROYAL MO (c, Uncle Mo—Royal Irish Lass, by Saint Ballado)

O-Mr. & Mrs. Jerome S. Moss. B-Brandywine Farm (KY). T-John A. Shirreffs. Sales History: $300,000 Ylg '15 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW & GISP, 6-2-2-1, $267,200.

Last Start: 3rd, GI Santa Anita Derby, SA, Apr. 8

Accomplishments Include: 1st, GIII Robert B. Lewis S., SA, Feb. 4

Next start: Possible for GI Kentucky Derby, CD, May 6

Thoro-Graph sheet, Equineline PPs

KY Derby Points: 30

If Royal Mo goes to the Kentucky Derby, it won't just be to provide company for more accomplished stablemate Gormley, because Royal Mo ran an impressive breakout race when third in the Santa Anita Derby to re-establish himself as a legitimate West Coast contender within the middle tier of the overall division. Parked widest in post 13, Royal Mo was keen to be the outermost aggressor in a three-way duel that consumed the opening six furlongs of the race, and he even briefly thrust his head in front three-eighths out from the wire. He was still in it to win it late in the lane, and a dropped whip near the sixteenth pole may or may not have compromised his chances for a better placing in the final few jumps. The “if” part about Royal Mo going on to the Derby depends largely on leaderboard points, because right now this colt is on the outside looking in. He's currently ranked 22nd with 30 points, and six other horses that have already accumulated points are scheduled to race in this weekend's GI Arkansas Derby.

8. (7) PRACTICAL JOKE (c, Into Mischief—Halo Humor, by Distorted Humor)

O-Klaravich Stables, Inc. & William H. Lawrence. B-Whispering Oaks (KY). T-Chad C. Brown. Sales History: $135,000 Ylg '15 KEEJAN; $240,000 Ylg '15 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: MGISW, 6-3-2-0, $1,015,800.

Last Start: 2nd, GII Toyota Blue Grass S., KEE, Apr. 8

Accomplishments Include: 1st, GI Hopeful S., SAR, Sept. 5; 1st, GI Champagne S., BEL, Oct. 8.

Next Start: GI Kentucky Derby, CD, May 6

Thoro-Graph sheet, Equineline PPs

KY Derby Points: 74

On one level, Practical Joke ran capably when second in Saturday's Blue Grass S. He jumped out to a good position toward the front of the field, endured being floated three wide through the first turn, and launched into a sustained bid five furlongs out. Yet on another level, you could say that Practical Joke again moved too soon (just like in the Fountain of Youth S., when his bold bid a half-mile out also flattened out), and despite being all-out while aggressively asked through the stretch in the Blue Grass, he couldn't put away a softened-up 31-1 maiden winner. Although Practical Joke will be heading to the Derby sporting two graded-stakes seconds in his only starts of 2017, there's still the not-so-small issue of his never having won a two-turn race. Still, trainer Brown is optimistic about the near future. “He showed a lot of heart. I was disappointed with the trip but that was due to the [outside] post. [Jockey] Joel [Rosario] really didn't have a chance to tuck him in. The winner really ran a courageous race. He really ran fantastic and I thought my horse did, too. Post is so important and today even though it was a short field, it hurt us because he had to go wide. I am proud of his effort.”

9. (5) J BOYS ECHO (c, Mineshaft">Mineshaft—Letgomyecho, by Menifee)

'TDN Rising Star' O-Albaugh Family Stable. B-Betz/Blackburn/J. Betz/Ramsby/CNHHHNK (KY). T-Dale L. Romans. Sales History: $485,000 Ylg '15 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 6-2-1-1, $349,600.

Last Start: 4th, GII Toyota Blue Grass S., KEE, Apr. 8

Accomplishments Include: 1st, GIII Gotham S., AQU, Mar. 4

Next Start: GI Kentucky Derby, CD, May 6

Thoro-Graph sheet, Equineline PPs, Caulfield on J Boys Echo

KY Derby Points: 63

If you're compiling a list of “dark horses” for the Derby, make sure to include this bay. In the Blue Grass S., J Boys Echo was brushed at the break, got knocked around a bit in mild traffic entering the far turn, then came five wide at the head of the homestretch with too little too late, and was not pushed on late by his jockey when it became apparent this 'TDN Rising Star' was not going to seriously threaten the top two. While none of those minor adversities in and of themselves were to blame for his so-so midpack finish behind a long-shot maiden winner, you could chalk the experience up to a learning effort and still be pretty happy getting something like 25-1 Derby price on a Romans trainee at Churchill who has a solid foundation of five consecutive route races and has already once cracked triple digits on the Beyer speed scale (102 in the Gotham S.). “He ran a credible race,” Romans said. “You can go back in history and look at horses that run third or fourth in [the Blue Grass] and come back and do well … He's a good horse, and we'll see what happens. Twenty horses in a mile and a quarter race–a lot of stuff can go right.”

10. (2) TAPWRIT (c, Tapit—Appealing Zophie, by Successful Appeal)

O-Bridlewood Farm, Eclipse Thoroughbred Partners & Robert V. LaPenta. B-My Meadowview, LLC (KY). T-Todd A. Pletcher. Sales History: $1,200,000 Ylg '15 FTSAUG. Lifetime Record: GSW, 6-3-1-0, $343,902.

Last Start: 5th, GII Toyota Blue Grass S., KEE, Apr. 8

Accomplishments Include: 1st, GII Tampa Bay Derby, TAM, Mar. 11, 1st, Pulpit S., GP, Dec. 10

Next Start: Possible for GI Kentucky Derby, CD, May 6

Thoro-Graph sheet, Equineline PPs

KY Derby Points: 54

Trainer Pletcher was objectively frank and didn't sugarcoat his $1.2 million yearling's blah fifth in the Blue Grass S., which could have been the athletic gray's big punch-through race en route to Louisville. “He seemed to run kind of flat,” Pletcher said. “I thought he saddled beautifully and behaved really well in the post parade and the gate. He had his head in the air a little bit and missed the break a touch. Then he got stuck four or five wide all the way around there. It seemed like he struggled with the race track a little bit. He just ran kind of evenly and flat the whole way.” Jockey Jose Ortiz added an “I don't think he liked the track” assessment. Considering Tapwrit's previously promising form and the wildly fluctuating nature of the division three weeks out from the Triple Crown, you can't blame this colt's connections if they forge ahead to the Derby with a horse who has a chance at a mid-odds upset. “We'll see how he comes out of it and talk to everyone, but we feel like he's that caliber of horse,” Pletcher added. “As long as we don't find any major reasons (not to), we'll certainly take him to Churchill (Downs) and see how he trains there.”

11. (8) MALAGACY (c, Shackleford—Classiest Gem, by Dehere)

'TDN Rising Star' O-Sumaya U.S. Stable. B-John Trumbulovic (KY). T-Todd A. Pletcher. Sales History: $45,000 Wlg '14 KEENOV; $130,000 Ylg '15 OBSAUG; $190,000 2yo '16 EASMAY. Lifetime Record: GSW, 3-3-0-0, $586,800.

Last Start: 1st, GII Rebel S., OP, Mar. 18

Next Start: GI Arkansas Derby, OP, Apr. 15

Thoro-Graph sheet, Equineline PPs

KY Derby Points: 50

Malagacy is 3-for-3 with a sprint-sprint-stakes route progressions culminating with a Derby prep win at Oaklawn going 1 1/16 miles, and he'll attempt to stretch out an extra sixteenth of a mile on Saturday as one of the headliners in the Arkansas Derby. Despite being lightly raced, trainer Pletcher has praised Malagacy's apparent edge in terms of mental preparedness and a rateable disposition. This 'TDN Rising Star' has an evenly spaced race progression so far in 2017, with starts in January, February and March leading into Saturday's race, which could leave him in good shape for a Kentucky Derby berth should he run well in the Arkansas Derby with only three weeks left until the Triple Crown season starts.

12. (16) BATTALION RUNNER (c, 3, Unbridled's Song–Tamboz, by Tapit)

'TDN Rising Star' O-St. Elias Stable. B-Dell Ridge Farm, LLC (KY). T-Todd A. Pletcher. Sales History: $700,000 Ylg '15 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSP, 4-2-2-0, $200,600.

Last Start: 2nd, GII Wood Memorial S., AQU, Apr. 8

Next Start: Possible for GI Kentucky Derby, May 6

Thoro-Graph sheet, Equineline PPs

Battalion Runner didn't have to work too hard to attain the early lead in the Wood Memorial, but if he's to be forwardly placed in the Derby, he's going to have to deal with far more front-end pressure. Yet considering he'd only started three times (and just once in 2017) prior to the Wood, he did show a willingness to push back when prompted by the likes of Irish War Cry, which has to count for something in terms of seasoning. The two sparred spiritedly down the backstretch (with jockey John Velazquez keeping this 'TDN Rising Star' about three paths off the rail), and Battalion Runner hung in determinedly for as long as he could until the winner overpowered him inside the final furlong. Based on performance in the Wood and a pedigree that implies ample stamina, Battalion Runner just might be suited for ten furlongs in the Derby. But trainer Pletcher has repeated through the winter and spring that Battalion Runner benefits from generous spacing between races, and now he's going to have to improve even further in a shorter time frame if he's expected to make a start on Derby Day.

13. (12) GUNNEVERA (c, Dialed In—Unbridled Rage, by Unbridled)

O-Peacock Racing Stables, LLC. B-Brandywine Farm & Stephen Upchurch (KY). T-Antonio Sano. Sales History: $16,000 Ylg '15 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: MGSW, 8-4-2-0, $1,075,200.

Last Start: 3rd, GI Xpressbet Florida Derby, GP, Apr. 1

Accomplishments Include: 1st, GII Xpressbet Fountain of Youth S., GP, Mar. 4; 1st, GIII Delta Downs Jackpot S., DED, Nov. 19; 1st, GII Saratoga Special S., SAR, Aug. 14

Next Start: GI Kentucky Derby, CD, May 6

Thoro-Graph sheet, Equineline PPs, Caulfield on Gunnevera

KY Derby Points: 84

Gunnevera will be one of those horses in the 15-1 range in the Derby betting who will be tough to back with confidence as a win wager, but you'd hate to exclude him from any vertical bets because his one-run-from-the-back style and his stayer-centric pedigree both stamp him as a colt who will likely be hitting his best stride when some other others in the Derby are hitting a wall endurance-wise. Trainer Sano reported that Gunnevera “came back in great shape after the Florida Derby … Our job for now is to keep him sound and happy, Gunnevera will do the rest.” Plans are to depart from Gulfstream Park West via van for Churchill Downs on Apr. 22, with at least one workout in Florida prior to shipping and another in Louisville before the Derby.

14. (14) CLASSIC EMPIRE (c, Pioneerof the Nile—Sambuca Classica, by Cat Thief)

O-John C. Oxley. B-Steven & Brandi Nicholson (KY). T-Mark E. Casse. Sales History: $475,000 Ylg '15 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: Ch. 2yo Colt, MGISW, 6-4-0-1, $1,520,220.

Last Start: 3rd, GII Lambholm South Holy Bull S., GP, Feb. 4

Accomplishments Include: 1st, GI Sentient Jet Breeders' Cup Juvenile, SA, Nov. 5, 1st, GI Claiborne Breeders' Futurity, KEE, Oct. 8, 1st, GIII Bashford Manor S., CD, July 2.

Next start: GI Arkansas Derby, OP, Apr. 15

Thoro-Graph sheet, Equineline PPs, Caulfield on Classic Empire

KY Derby Points: 32

As it stands now, the juvenile champ needs to rack up qualifying points in Saturday's Arkansas Derby just to make the cutoff for the Kentucky Derby, because Classic Empire is currently ranked 21st on the “Road to the Derby” leaderboard. Seeing an Eclipse Awards winner scrounging for points in the final pre-Triple Crown graded stakes for 3-year-olds is a little like seeing the kid voted “Most Likely To Succeed” in high school standing in a bread line. But what a comeback it would be if Classic Empire parlays a strong showing in Hot Springs into an “all in” effort beneath the Twin Spires. Behavioral quirks, a foot abscess, and some vague type of back discomfort have all contributed to a chaotic 2017 that has threatened–but never completely derailed–Classic Empire's Derby aspirations. Yet everything could return to right quicker than it went wrong if this colt reverses form for the better against what is shaping up to be a solid, but not spectacular, Arkansas Derby lineup (entries drawn Wednesday). Since the Eclipse Awards debuted in 1971, only three 2-year-old male champions have run in the Arkansas Derby: Favorite Trick (Phone Trick), was third in 1998; Answer Lively (Lively One), was elevated to fourth following a 1999 disqualification, and American Pharoah (Pioneerof the Nile) won in 2015. Classic Empire, sharing the same sire as the 2015 Triple Crown winner, can use all the family influence and good karma he can get.

15. (N/A) IRAP (c, Tiznow—Silken Cat, by Storm Cat)

O-Reddam Racing LLC. B-Aaron & Marie Jones (KY). T-Doug F. O'Neill. Sales History: $140,000 RNA Ylg '15 KEESEP; $300,000 2yo '16 OBSMAR. Lifetime Record: GISW, 8-1-3-1, $772,600.

Last Start: 1st, GII Toyota Blue Grass S., KEE, Apr. 8

Next Start: GI Kentucky Derby, CD, May 6

Thoro-Graph sheet, Equineline PPs

KY Derby Points: 113

Irap's 31-1 win in the Blue Grass S. justifiably qualifies as an upset in terms of that one race, but in the grand scheme of the 2017 Derby picture it fits the wacky pattern of unpredictability that has hallmarked the division. A whole lot of scrambling for position was going on among the tightly packed favorites as the Blue Grass field banked onto the Keeneland backstretch, and while the riders of those highly regarded horses engaged in a chess match, Julien Leparoux played a simple game of checkers, leapfrogging his blinkers-off maiden past the tiring pacemaker at the entrance to the far turn. The moderate Blue Grass pace was not taxing enough to wipe him out, and while Irap was not exactly a commanding presence when faced with fresh challenges down the lane, he at least responded in workmanlike fashion, justifying that his earlier graded-stakes placings behind the likes of top West Coast horses Mastery (Candy Ride {ARG}) and Royal Mo were not flukes. Leparoux, it should be noted, is also the regular rider of juvenile champ Classic Empire, setting up a possible open mount on one or the other depending on the results of this weekend's Arkansas Derby.

16. (19) HENCE (c, Street Boss—Floating Island, by A.P. Indy) O/B-Calumet Farm (KY). T-Steven M. Asmussen. Lifetime Record: GSW, 6-2-1-1, $542,601.

Last Start: 1st, GIII Sunland Derby, SUN, Mar. 26

Next Start: GI Kentucky Derby, CD, May 6

Thoro-Graph sheet, Equineline PPs

KY Derby Points: 50

If Hence is to be draped in a blanket of roses on the first Saturday in May, it will likely have to result from an extreme pace meltdown combined with a fortuitously clean trip and having none of the top Derby favorites fire their “A” efforts. Still, everything else being equal, if you gave me the choice of betting two bucks on a 40-1 Derby deep closer versus betting the same amount on a 40-1 needs-the-lead speedball, I'd take the closer every single time. It's easier to envision winning scenarios under such circumstances–Mine That Bird (Birdstone) and Giacomo (Holy Bull) come to mind–and Hence has already run well (second, beaten a neck) in his lone try over the Churchill Downs strip. He also has a solid foundation of five straight races at a mile or more, although it remains to be seen whether the colt's connections will commit to a jockey with more Derby experience than Alfredo Juarez Jr., the capable New Mexico-based mainstay who picked up the ship-on mount for the Sunland Derby. That GIII win was Juarez's first graded stakes win in 11 years, and his only three other lifetime graded wins all came in Grade IIIs.

17. (N/A) PATCH (Union Rags—Windyindy, by A.P. Indy)

'TDN Rising Star' O/B-Calumet Farm (KY). T-Todd A. Pletcher. Lifetime Record: GSP, 3-1-2-0.

Last Start: 2nd, GII Louisiana Derby, FG, Apr. 1

Next Start: Possible for GI Kentucky Derby, CD, May 6

Thoro-Graph sheet, Equineline PPs

KY Derby Points: 40

Patch, with only three lifetime starts and no wins beyond the maiden ranks, is a long-shot outsider if he starts in Louisville. He's currently secured a points berth (40), although that status may or may not change depending on how the Arkansas Derby shakes out. His one-turn mile win at Gulfstream was good enough for trainer Pletcher to send him to the Louisiana Derby, and considering he broke from the rail going nine furlongs against more seasoned horses and still managed second behind the thriving Girvin, it was a quietly solid effort. He was always in touch with the main flight of the field while rating comfortably at the fence, and he did gallop out past the winner after finishing with good courage.

18. (N/A) STATE OF HONOR (c, To Honor and Serve—State Cup, by Elusive Quality)

O-Conrad Farms. B-Manfred & Penny Conrad (ON). T-Mark E. Casse. Lifetime Record: GISP, 10-1-4-2, $382,548.

Last Start: 2nd, GI Xpressbet Florida Derby, GP, Apr. 1

Next Start: GI Kentucky Derby, CD, May 6

Thoro-Graph sheet, Equineline PPs

KY Derby Points: 62

State of Honor debuts within the Top 20 based on his 62 Derby qualifying points, which places him tenth in terms of leaderboard eligibility. He owns a combined six seconds and thirds from 10 lifetime starts, and never seemed to settle when wrangled back off the pace in the Florida Derby behind ultra-impressive winner Always Dreaming. “He was probably a little bit intimidated down inside, turning for home, where [Always Dreaming] kind of got first kick on him, where we had to play catch-up,” said trainer Casse. “I was actually, after watching the replay, more impressed with his performance than initially. He's a very consistent horse and ran well, so I think he deserves a shot. The owners are excited, we're excited, and he's going to Kentucky.”

19. (N/A) UNTRAPPED (c, TrappeShot—Exit Three, by Giant's Causeway)

'TDN Rising Star' O-Michael Langford. B-Indian Creek & Jonathan Sheppard (KY). T-Steven M. Asmussen. Lifetime Record: MGSP, 5-1-3-1, $256,800.

Last Start: 3rd, GII Rebel S., OP, Mar. 18

Next Start: GI Arkansas Derby, OP, Apr. 15

Thoro-Graph sheet, Equineline PPs

KY Derby Points: 34

'TDN Rising Star' Untrapped gets a final chance to launch himself into Kentucky Derby relevancy if he can knock one out of the park in Saturday's Arkansas Derby. He's been second and third in graded stakes preps at both Fair Grounds and Oaklawn so far this season, but should he run well enough to head to Louisville, it will be worth noting that he romped by 5 1/4 lengths over the Churchill strip when breaking his maiden at 6-5 there last November. He demonstrated better-than-it-looks tactical positioning in his Rebel S. third behind Malagacy while encountering some mild early traffic that might have compromised his chances.

20. (N/A) THUNDER SNOW (IRE) (c, Helmet (Aus)—Eastern Joy {GB}, by Dubai Destination)

O-Godolphin Racing LLC. B-Darley (IRE). T-Saeed bin Suroor. Lifetime Record: G1SW, 8-4-2-0, $1,627,692.

Last Start: 1st, G2 UAE Derby, MEY, Mar. 25.

Accomplishments Include: 1st, G1 Criterium International, STC, Oct. 30, 1st, UAE 2000 Guineas, MEY, Feb. 11.

Next Start: Possible for GI Kentucky Derby, CD, May 6

Thoro-Graph sheet, Equineline PPs

KY Derby Points: 100

Thunder Snow, while not previously ranked within the TDN Top 20, gets a berth this week because he's solidly entrenched in the fifth position on the Derby leaderboard with 100 points based on his overseas wins, meaning he's in the gate at Churchill Downs if his connections opt to fly him in. He's riding a three-race win streak and has eight starts to his credit, although six of them were at seven furlongs or shorter. His UAE Derby win in the mud was the fastest clocking of that stakes on dirt at Meydan, although he spooked at the large infield video board several times during pre-race warmups, had trouble handling the turns, and veered and shied when encountering starting gate marks on the track en route to re-rallying for a nose victory.